Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 7.915304 9.093068 10.363656 11.833505 13.484137 15.277613 17.370787
2026-02-01 6.206596 7.801191 9.657074 11.965264 14.746713 17.977400 22.000013
2026-02-08 5.229635 6.971302 9.100425 11.873539 15.366362 19.594071 25.069864
2026-02-15 4.472864 6.290548 8.613533 11.766580 15.896194 21.078036 28.022672
2026-02-22 3.963165 5.839326 8.330796 11.833894 16.576195 22.709263 31.165255
2026-03-01 3.635217 5.585330 8.265421 12.153417 17.571982 24.766621 34.932982
2026-03-08 3.204313 5.131417 7.870723 11.967582 17.839917 25.836598 37.404106
2026-03-15 2.747232 4.585792 7.288528 11.454244 17.592014 26.158270 38.833693
2026-03-22 2.574138 4.449677 7.285489 11.767154 18.522351 28.142528 42.643107
2026-03-29 2.399822 4.291488 7.230535 11.988324 19.316956 29.955410 46.273113
2026-04-05 2.176504 4.029854 6.990371 11.901065 19.632265 31.072274 48.927352
2026-04-12 1.968793 3.772336 6.732742 11.761152 19.846891 32.034406 51.376016
2026-04-19 1.805284 3.578305 6.567612 11.764337 20.294367 33.383172 54.491419
2026-04-26 1.674890 3.430025 6.466130 11.862218 20.893720 34.987168 58.060757
2026-05-03 1.528958 3.237231 6.270327 11.782729 21.191069 36.121398 60.934358
2026-05-10 1.393502 3.049686 6.067067 11.672482 21.424091 37.154139 63.678530
2026-05-17 1.297795 2.928864 5.972132 11.740733 21.953043 38.673078 67.240457
2026-05-24 1.244272 2.886603 6.016827 12.057535 22.918114 40.934127 72.073798
2026-05-31 1.130971 2.709871 5.794828 11.873169 22.998048 41.732589 74.545940
2026-06-07 0.990671 2.460553 5.412521 11.363353 22.469543 41.482101 75.264587
2026-06-14 0.954844 2.434116 5.464397 11.674097 23.426004 43.780017 80.316284
2026-06-21 0.911566 2.386540 5.469676 11.893719 24.223674 45.831271 85.016611
2026-06-28 0.841179 2.269507 5.323717 11.807071 24.447558 46.890104 88.052945